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Ordinarily, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year honor follows a straightforward script. It often serves as a form of apology. Sorry we misjudged your franchise in our preseason predictions.

In theory, it's a clear-cut line: the coach who orchestrated the most dramatic resurgence is handed the prize. In reality, it sparks an yearly debate about expectations and whether we're genuinely rewarding excellent leadership or simply the biggest surprise.

However this year's race is fundamentally different. The group of nominees is remarkably talented. It has been the year of turnarounds. The NFL has been chaotic, with recent conference champions declining and longtime strugglers improving collectively. In an ordinary season, a coach leading the his team to the top of the conference would make him the overwhelming favorite. Yet in this wild and entertaining season, he's facing multiple other outstanding candidates.

Below is how the ideal vote should shake out.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year voters love quarterbacks. History shows this. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. If you fix a quarterback, you're well on your way home.

Ben Johnson not only corrected Caleb Williams; he's unleashed him. Within an ideal ecosystem, Williams has been given the chance to demonstrate his rare talent. From Week 9, the Chicago offense sit at fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a hot streak – it's sustained performance. With his guidance, the quarterback has become increasingly confident, less careless, and has eagerly submitted to the gameplan instead of going rogue. It is an offense constructed entirely in Johnson's image: a bully-ball ground attack, a consistent helping of play-action and a innovative aerial game that frees wide receiver targets everywhere. Williams has taken advantage. And when openings weren't available, he's been capable to create big plays out of broken plays.

The coach came to Chicago with a specific offensive philosophy. Virtually each gamble – overhauling the trenches, highlighting the tight ends, turning the QB into a rhythm thrower – has worked. That's rare for a rookie head coach. And it's even more uncommon yet for a leader who entered the building with the immense hype he did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the hottest name on the head coaching market. However when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are zero guarantees. Remarkably, Johnson has met the hype – and even surpassed them. He's proven not only to be a scheme dork but the type of leader that can inject fresh energy into an franchise.

During a normal season, Johnson would be the overwhelming favorite. Yet this is not a typical year!

The area where Johnson's case comes a bit into trouble is on defense. The Bears presently sit 25th in defensive success rate. They are living on turnovers, and takeaways are famously fickle. Defensive minds can stress creating turnovers, but no one can ensure it. He is on the ballot because the offensive production is legitimate. He's ranked lower because luck is doing an outsized share of the defense's heavy lifting. If not for a couple bounces of the ball, the team would be two victories behind. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the foundation is established for sustained winning. But he comes up short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

Coen is in a comparable situation to his counterpart. He's a fellow rookie head coach who has masterminded a rapid resurgence. Over the stretch run of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the best all-around ball of his professional life. And he's also overseen the overhaul of a defense that now ranks fifth in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more notably, he has mastered the off-field aspects, which was not a certainty after his initial public introduction and some of his preseason moves.

Coen walked into the Jaguars with an uncommonly inexperienced coaching staff. In contrast to other coaches, who surrounded themselves with the perfect coaching mix of youth and veteran savvy, he trusted first-timers. Starting with the leader on down to assistants to position coaches, the Jags are stocked with rookies. That type of setup is exciting on paper, but frequently collapses in practice – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everyone is learning a their job on the fly. But Coen has pulled the entire group and everything together.

Following an initial strong beginning, there was a possibility that the season would veer off the rails. A mid-year setback caused the Jags wobbling again. That's typically when leaders panic and change too much. He did not. Rather, he streamlined the approach. Jacksonville stopped chasing home-run plays and started hunting sustainable ones. Coen refocused the attack around key players and the running game, and asked his QB to use his mobility more.

The results are obvious. The Jags have won seven games consecutively and will be the AFC's No 3 seed. Coen gets the tiniest deduction in the standings because he inherited a skilled team, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, 13-3

Each Coach of the Year case has a defining decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback choice.

Parting ways from a veteran, signing a new quarterback and partnering him with an innovative offensive coordinator could have derailed the season in the early weeks. Instead, it defined it. Through the middle point of the year, the new QB was an MVP candidate. He has fallen away since that hot streak, dropping to 23rd in efficiency per dropback over the latter part of the schedule, putting him just one spot ahead of peers.

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