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Mounting concerns are present regarding the possibility of warfare involving East African neighbors, Ethiopia and the Eritrean government, as confrontational language has escalated in the past few weeks.

What Has Ethiopia Said?

Ethiopia's, being landlocked, requests for entry to the sea coast through Eritrea has provoked a heated war of words.

The Ethiopian leader first openly declared in 2023 that his country's maritime access was an vital issue, statements that Eritrea dismissed.

Relations between the two countries have often been tense. Following a decades-long fight for sovereignty, Eritrea, which has a long Red Sea coastline, legally broke away from Ethiopian rule in the early 1990s, leaving it landlocked.

Five years later, a territorial conflict started in which over a hundred thousand people were killed.

Latest Remarks from Ethiopia's Officials

Prime Minister Abiy and military leader General Birhanu Jula have publicly asserted control of Eritrean coastal city of the port of Assab – some 60 km from the border - and hinted at the intention to capture it through military means.

Recently, the Prime Minister said the country's "error" of losing access to the Red Sea as a due to Eritrea secession would be "corrected in the future".

Ethiopia's ambassador to Kenya, ex-military officer Bacha, said that Assab was "belonging to Ethiopia" and would be returned "by force".

Eritrean Response to the Statements

In the face of persistent challenges from Ethiopian officials, Eritrea's response has been limited to short statements on social media from Information Minister Yemane G..

The minister has dismissed Ethiopia's demand for access to the Red Sea describing it as "dangerous" and a "negative policy" of "irredentism" – a approach of reclaiming previous domains.

Government spokespeople warned on 16 September that moves to justify "flagrant aggression" would have serious consequences for the Ethiopian government and its neighbouring countries and is a "limit that should not be crossed|violated|breached".

Security Movements on the Ground

There have been little evidence of major military movements in the frontier regions between the two countries.

Nevertheless, in the country, government media has shown graduation ceremonies of thousands of cadets at different defense facilities.

The head of staff section of the armed forces, General Hachalu, stated recently in an interview that the military was in a "reliable position" as "many thousands of recruits" were joining it, which he said was "a warning to our opponents".

Historical Background of the Tension

For decades from the late 19th century, the territory was ruled by colonial powers.

Following Italy's defeat, it was then administered by the British military before becoming a federated part of the Ethiopian empire.

But in 1962 the Ethiopian emperor terminated this agreement and the region became totally absorbed into the Ethiopian state.

A thirty-year internal conflict followed, concluding with Ethiopia's defeat in 1991. Autonomy was then approved by voters in a referendum in 1993.

For a few years in the 1990s, there were friendly connections between the authorities in Ethiopia's capital and Asmara, but they fell out over the precise positioning of their common border, leading to war in 1998.

Although this ended in a truce in 2000, it was incompletely executed, and the neighbors continued at in dispute.

This changed in 2018, when the Prime Minister made overtures to Eritrea's leader the president. The two endorsed a statement that the war was finished – a decision that earned Abiy the prestigious award.

The both administrations were then cooperators in the country's recent internal conflict in Tigray.

However ties have subsequently deteriorated once more.